2324 仁寶(Compal)｜20260612｜GS

PDF 原檔：2324 仁寶(Compal)｜20260612｜GS_original.pdf

原始內容

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Research

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Compal (2324.TW): Ongoing revenue mix diversi fi cation; global capacity ramping up to support AI servers; Neutral

May

-40%

Jun(E)

Jul(E)

Aug(E)

Compal's May revenue was fl at MoM, or 9% higher than our estimate. Compal's PC shipments in May increased 11% MoM to 2mn units, and management expects QoQ growth in 2Q-3Q26. We expect MoM revenue growth in Jun, driven by customers' pull-in by quarter end, followed by slight MoM declines in Jul-Aug, considering the high base in Jun. Overall, we expect 2Q / 3Q26E revenues to grow at 20% / 32% YoY, supported by Compal's ongoing revenue mix diversi fi cation, and its new US plant, expected to start production by the end of 2Q26 (link). Compal's non-PC revenue mix increased to 35% in 1Q26 (vs. 30% in 1Q25 and 29% in 4Q25), which management attributes to the strong performance of wireless communication products and AI servers, re fl ecting the company's business diversi fi cation. We remain positive on Compal's business diversi fi cation, supported by global capacity expansion in the US, Taiwan, and Vietnam, while consumer electronics still accounts for the majority of the company's total revenue, which could be capped by rising raw material costs (e.g., memory, CPU). Maintain Neutral on fair valuation.

Exhibit 1: Compal's monthly revenues and YoY trend (RHS)

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Compal's 3-month revenue preview

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to ed as research www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Verena Jeng

+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Yifan Hu

+852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

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Earnings revisions: Compal's 1Q26 revenue was higher than our estimate, while the GM was lower than our estimate, which we attribute to the rising contribution from the AI server business. We factor in Compal's 1Q26 results and raise our 2026-28E net income by 2% / 5% / 1%, mainly on higher revenues and lower opex ratios. Our 2026-28E revenues are revised up by 9% / 13% / 9%, mainly on higher contribution from the AI server business, supported by Compal's global capacity expansion and product mix upgrade towards high-end models with higher ASP, while 2026-28E GMs are revised down, considering that the AI server business carries a lower GM than consumer electronics. Our 2026-28E opex ratios are revised down to re fl ect the lower-than-expected opex ratio in 1Q26, mainly on a larger revenue scale and operational e ffi ciency improvement as AI server shipments ramp up.

Exhibit 3: Earnings revisions

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuation: We roll over our base year to 2027E and continue to derive our 12-month TP based on near-term P/E. Our 2027E target P/E is updated to 13.6x (vs. old TP implying 2027E P/E of 12.4x), which is derived from the refreshed peers' correlation of forward trading P/E and EPS growth, mainly on Compal's higher forward-year earnings growth. With our updated earnings estimates and target multiple, our 12-month TP is raised to NT$39.5 (vs. NT$34.7 previously). Our target P/E is still around the company's historical avg. forward trading P/E, considering the rising memory cost weighing on consumer electronics end demand, which still accounts for the majority of Compal's total revenue. Maintain Neutral.

Exhibit 4: Compal: Correlation of earnings growth and P/E of its peers

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 5: Compal's 12M forward P/E

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Re fi nitiv Eikon e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8

Exmoll. compal fat summary

(NT$ m)

Revenue

70%

Gross profit

Operating expense

60%

Operating income

Pre tax profit

50%

Net income

40%

Margins / ratio

Gross margin

Opex ratio

30%

Operating margin

Net margin

20%

QoQ

10%

Revenue

Gross profit

13%

Operating income

Net income

0%

YoY

Revenue

Jan-00

Jan-01

Gross profit

Operating income

Net income

Source: TEJ

Exhibit 7: Compal P&L summary

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Price Target Risks and Methodology - Compal

We are Neutral-rated on Compal with a 12-month target price of NT$39.5. Our TP is based on 13.6x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth and market re-rating for ODM companies as major factors for the stock's performance.

Key upside/downside risks: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery, 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up, and 3) stronger/weaker-than-expected demand for tablets.

1Q25

2Q25

1981E98 8955 446 9440

1Q26

1281388164136464

2Q26E

11E0888 8$596173

3Q26E

QB01013 3463 1328 6553

4Q26E

3%

1608888 6491

2025

08818: 8456

2026E

1606:326431

2027E

1133

2028E

7%

3%

6%

11%

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2324.TW

12m Price Target:

NT$39.50

Price:

NT$36.15

Upside: 9.3%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 11 Jun 2026 close.

e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-02）

回補驗證：僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片，非全量驗證。